I would like to challenge you on the growth assumptions that you use for the valuation of the company.
You assume revenue growth of 10% in FY 2024. However, the average revenue growth over the period of 2019-2023 has been about 6.3% ( from HKD 764 million in 2019 to HKD 977 million in 2023). Wouldn`t 10% then be to optimistic?
Furthmore, you assume that the margin to gradually improve to 15% in 2027, in part because of an increase in the service revenue as part of the total mix. However, the service revenue is already ~ 82% of the total mix, and has been round 80% for the last 5 years.
So it remains to be seen if service revenue can grow to 85%+ of the mix in addition to a potential margin improvement.
Perhaps i am looking to understand how you came to these assumptions to further understand the thinking about the valuation. In case you could provide any more light on this that would be fantastic.
Revenue growth: the average revenue growth rate from FY2019 to 2023 may not be a fair comparison because of the forced closure from 2020 to 2022. The company, along with its peers, had to close their centers for 94 days in 2020, 48 days in 2021 and 104 days in 2022 respectively. In FY2023 they managed to grow the revenue by 16% when the social distancing rule was suspended. It doesn't seem to us that 10% is too optimistic.
Margin: I believe you are looking at the service revenue mix average from FY2019 to 2023. It is also worth noting that such average is distorted by the aforementioned closure. In fact, the service revenue has continued to grow over time, outpacing the overall revenue growth (see the segment revenue chart in the article). In a normalized basis the business was doing close to 14% net margin in FY2019. It doesn't seem to us that 15% net margin is too far off.
As we mentioned in the valuation section, we sort of look at the dividend yield and give the company a projection that we believe is doable. It is likely to be wrong for the risks we mentioned and hence the word IF. We look at the yield and think of the growth and earning sustainability the market is giving to the company and believe that the market is not giving the company enough confidence for their business model.
Hi,
Thanks for the write-up, very informative.
I would like to challenge you on the growth assumptions that you use for the valuation of the company.
You assume revenue growth of 10% in FY 2024. However, the average revenue growth over the period of 2019-2023 has been about 6.3% ( from HKD 764 million in 2019 to HKD 977 million in 2023). Wouldn`t 10% then be to optimistic?
Furthmore, you assume that the margin to gradually improve to 15% in 2027, in part because of an increase in the service revenue as part of the total mix. However, the service revenue is already ~ 82% of the total mix, and has been round 80% for the last 5 years.
So it remains to be seen if service revenue can grow to 85%+ of the mix in addition to a potential margin improvement.
Perhaps i am looking to understand how you came to these assumptions to further understand the thinking about the valuation. In case you could provide any more light on this that would be fantastic.
Thanks!
With kind regards,
Jelle
Thanks for the comment.
Revenue growth: the average revenue growth rate from FY2019 to 2023 may not be a fair comparison because of the forced closure from 2020 to 2022. The company, along with its peers, had to close their centers for 94 days in 2020, 48 days in 2021 and 104 days in 2022 respectively. In FY2023 they managed to grow the revenue by 16% when the social distancing rule was suspended. It doesn't seem to us that 10% is too optimistic.
Margin: I believe you are looking at the service revenue mix average from FY2019 to 2023. It is also worth noting that such average is distorted by the aforementioned closure. In fact, the service revenue has continued to grow over time, outpacing the overall revenue growth (see the segment revenue chart in the article). In a normalized basis the business was doing close to 14% net margin in FY2019. It doesn't seem to us that 15% net margin is too far off.
As we mentioned in the valuation section, we sort of look at the dividend yield and give the company a projection that we believe is doable. It is likely to be wrong for the risks we mentioned and hence the word IF. We look at the yield and think of the growth and earning sustainability the market is giving to the company and believe that the market is not giving the company enough confidence for their business model.